Prediction is intelligence

Intelligence, at its core, involves the ability to model the world in order to predict and respond effectively to future events.

From a cognitive perspective, intelligence is often described as the ability to learn, adapt, and solve new problems. All these abilities involve some form of prediction. For example, learning involves forming mental models of the world that we can use to predict outcomes. Adapting involves predicting how changes in our environment will affect us and how we can respond. Solving new problems often involves predicting what solutions will work based on our past experiences and knowledge.

From a neuroscience perspective, our brains are constantly making predictions about what will happen next. This is known as predictive coding or predictive processing. This theory proposes that our brains are continually generating and updating hypotheses or models about the world and using these to predict sensory input. These predictions are then compared to the actual sensory input, and any discrepancies (prediction errors) lead to model updating. This ongoing process of prediction, error calculation, and updating is thought to underpin perception, action, and learning, all of which are key components of intelligence.

In artificial intelligence, the concept of prediction is integral to many models of machine learning, where the goal is often to train a system to predict outcomes based on input data. The better a system can predict, the more "intelligent" we consider it to be. For instance, reinforcement learning, a popular AI technique, operates on the idea of an agent predicting which actions will maximize future reward.

Emotional intelligence, for example, could be seen as the capacity to predict and understand the emotional states of oneself and others, thereby enabling effective interaction and communication. Similarly, creativity can be framed as the ability to envision and predict the potential impact or response a novel idea, piece of art, or solution may generate.

Specialized intelligence, such as orienteering, provides a unique example of how prediction underpins intelligence. Orienteering is the ability to navigate through a landscape using limited information and tools, such as a map and compass. In this case, prediction is vital in deciding the best route to follow. Individuals proficient in orienteering must predict the terrain's difficulties, understand how those factors could slow down their progress, and decide the optimal path. They must also anticipate possible changes in weather and how that may affect their journey.

Intrapersonal intelligence, or self-intelligence, also involves a significant degree of prediction. This type of intelligence involves understanding one's own emotions, strengths, weaknesses, and motivations. Being able to predict personal responses to different situations allows for better self-management and emotional regulation. For example, if someone knows they tend to react negatively to criticism, they can predict this response and prepare strategies to manage their reaction more effectively.

Decision-making is indeed a process deeply intertwined with the ability to predict outcomes and optimize them. When making decisions, we essentially engage in an exercise of forecasting the future. We project different scenarios in our mind, assess possible results, and based on those predictions, we choose the course of action most likely to lead to a favorable outcome.

Imagine a student in their final year of college, faced with the decision of which career path to pursue. They have a keen interest in both software engineering and environmental science. How do they choose their path?

First, they'll have to predict the outcomes associated with each career. They might consider factors such as job satisfaction, income potential, long-term job security, the state of each industry, and how each career aligns with their personal values and long-term life goals. They may also think about how the decision would affect their personal life, considering things like work-life balance, stress levels, or relocation possibilities.

The student might predict that a career in software engineering would provide a higher initial income and more job opportunities in the short term due to the current tech boom. On the other hand, a career in environmental science might align more with their personal passion for climate change mitigation and offer a greater sense of purpose, despite potentially lower income and job certainty.

In making this decision, the student would have to predict these potential outcomes and weigh them against each other. The 'optimal' decision isn't solely based on immediate (future) benefits, but also considers long-term predictions about personal satisfaction, potential societal impact, and the future state of the industries over the years.

This career decision example illustrates that decision-making involves predicting various potential outcomes, and then choosing the path that optimizes for the best predicted outcome, according to the individual's unique values and goals. This requires a kind of intelligence, demonstrating again how prediction is at the heart of (intelligent) decision-making.

Even our risk tolerance can indeed be viewed as a form of prediction. When we make decisions that involve risk, we are predicting how comfortable we would be with the potential negative outcomes of those risks. Similarly, ethical considerations in decision-making might also involve a form of prediction. When considering a decision with ethical implications, you predict not just the external consequences of the decision, but also how you will feel about yourself in light of those consequences. You are predicting your future emotional response based on your internal moral framework.

Thus, from these perspectives, prediction is intricately woven into the fabric of intelligence, transcending its traditional boundaries. It's not merely a component, but rather a fundamental aspect of what we perceive as intelligence, reaffirming the claim that "intelligence is prediction" from diverse viewpoints.